check_catalog_count: the paper-divergence WARN fires on every run, so it carries no information

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tools/check_catalog_count.py compares the live catalog against a constant taken from the paper:

PAPER_DECLARED_COUNT = 83     # arXiv:2606.09686
n_ssot                = 109   # live SSOT, today

Every run therefore prints:

WARN: SSOT (109) != paper count (83). An erratum to arXiv:2606.09686 is required
      (see ERRATA_2026-06-14.md). Canonical live count is 109.

A warning that is always on is not a warning. The file's own comment records that the value was corrected once (84 -> 83, 2026-08-01) to stop it crying wolf; the structure still does, because the ladder grows and the paper does not.

What is not the cause. I checked whether the MIN_ROWS = 109 floor I added in #2443 introduced this. It did not: --strict-paper returns exit 3 both before and after that commit, and the WARN predates it. The floor changes the outcome only where n_ssot == 83 exactly, which would mean deliberately deleting 26 rows.

Options, none of which is mine to pick:

1. Make the constant a range or a ratchet — the paper count is a floor the catalog may exceed, and only shrinking below it is a failure.
2. Fire the WARN once, on the transition, rather than on every run — needs somewhere to record "already reported at 109".
3. Issue the erratum, and move the constant to whatever the erratum says.

Option 1 is the smallest and matches the house ratchet pattern. Option 3 is the only one that makes the sentence true.

Refs #2465

Boundary

• tools/check_catalog_count.py

[gHashTag]

A boundary drafted from the paths this issue already names, so a bee can take it. Nothing is reserved until this is in the issue body - the Queen reads the body, not comments. Check the paths first: a wrong boundary reserves files the work does not own.

Boundary

• tools/check_catalog_count.py