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pool flag: add Kimi K3.1 Pro via opencode-go to summit — AA 55, plan door found (models.dev Go catalog + 53/57 measured probe successes), $2.11/task #1409

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@dezren39

Add flag (pool-intelligence, 2026-10-27) — hypothesis for the controlled-test mechanism (#1342); earns a config change only through #1342 + the steward's PR path.

Add opencode-go/kimi-k3.1-pro to summit: AA 55 (Artificial Analysis public leaderboard, pulled live 2026-10-27; unrounded 55.1 in prior AA-quoting sources) — 4th overall, ahead of GPT-6 Astra 53 and Gemini 4 Argon 53, behind Opus 5.5 max 58 / Sonnet 5.5 max 56 / Muse Wonder Full 56. Summit's current contributor seat (Muse Wonder contributor) has NO AA read for its contributor id (AA lists Wonder Full 56 with no speed data, Wonder 52 @ 208 t/s); Kimi is a quantified summit-class alternative at $2/$10 per 1M, AA cost/task $2.11, AA speed 41 t/s, TTFT 2.95s.

Why this is new since the 2026-10-27 composition review (R4 watch): that review found no fleet plan door (canonical catalog carries K3.1 Pro only via CommandCode; ClinePass lacks it). Two fresher sources contradict the "no door" conclusion for OpenCode Go:

  • models.dev api.json (read live 2026-10-27): the opencode-go catalog lists kimi-k3.1-pro.
  • Fleet route-attempt records (laptop OpenCode store, read-only): opencode-go served kimi-k3.1-pro on 2026-10-25 — 53/57 attempts succeeded (93%; #high n=33 all success, default n=24, 20 success / 4 failure), median recorded speed 38.2 t/s (#high) / 42.8 t/s (default), median first-token 6.7s (#high) / 13.0s (default). That burst looks like a probe session, not routine pool traffic — labelled as such.

Provider variance recorded: our measured TTFT via opencode-go (6.7–13.0s) is 2–4× AA's 2.95s; measured speed (38–43 t/s) is close to AA's current 41 t/s (an earlier AA-quoting compilation said 49.7 t/s — AA's own current page wins).

Cost-to-pool: burns the opencode-go window (monthly 65.33% used at 2026-10-27 06:55 CDT per babysitter quota snapshot, reset Fri Nov 6 23:55 CDT) — not the OpenAI final reserve, not PAYG.

Acceptance for the #1342 test: a summit-class task batch on opencode-go/kimi-k3.1-pro #high vs the current summit lead (opus-plan #high, AA 54 @ $1.82/task): completion rate, wall-clock per completed task, and first-token latency; adopt only if completion is at parity and the Go window cost is acceptable to the steward.

Activity

  1. added
    kind/featureNew feature or capability request
    queue/queuedHas a queued task in the Supabase agent queue
    on Oct 27, 2026
  2. developing-today commented on Oct 27, 2026

    @developing-today
    Contributor
  3. added
    area/infraInfrastructure, deployment, and operations
    meta/enrichedIntake review done: acceptance criteria, links, and normalized labels added
    on Oct 27, 2026
  4. added
    work/assignedQueue worker lifecycle state
    queue/claimedQueue worker lifecycle state
    and removed
    queue/queuedHas a queued task in the Supabase agent queue
    on Oct 28, 2026
  5. dezren39 commented on Oct 28, 2026

    @dezren39
    MemberAuthor

    Picked up — queue task 1671 (Lane A shift, 2026-10-27)

    • Stage: claimed / revalidating
    • Gate check: slice 1 procedure doc files/controlled-pool-tests.md exists in the goal workspace (created 2026-10-27 23:12 CDT) — gate passes.
    • Next: verify dispatch preconditions (fresh pool quota per the measurement gate, pinned-route dispatch for both arms) and record a verdict per the procedure.
  6. dezren39 commented on Oct 28, 2026

    @dezren39
    MemberAuthor

    Controlled test verdict — INCONCLUSIVE (queue task 1671, Lane A, 2026-10-27)

    Per files/controlled-pool-tests.md §4, an inconclusive test is a result, not a failure. The slice-1 gate passed (procedure doc exists, created 2026-10-27 23:12 CDT), but the test could not be executed in this task, for three verified reasons:

    1. Measurement gate unmet: no fresh quota read exists for opencode-go (or the incumbent opus-plan route). The latest provider-usage snapshot (2026-10-28T02:58Z) is an error snapshot — providers: {}, server down / connection refused — and is also >60 minutes old. Drew's measurement gate forbids any placement/dispatch without a quota read ≤60 min old for that pool.
    2. No pinned-route dispatch path from this queue: the procedure (§2) requires each arm's route pinned by packet (candidate opencode-go/kimi-k3.1-pro #high vs incumbent summit lead opus-plan #high). Repo-queue tasks are claimed by Muse cron worker lanes whose model route is not packet-pinnable to OpenCode providers; dispatching OpenCode sessions on those two routes belongs to the OpenChamber/steward dispatch path, which this task has no tool for.
    3. 48h rework window: measurement Bump build/buck/preludes/buck2-prelude from 3a02ea3 to 370cd4d #5 (48h rework) cannot close inside a 45-minute task timebox; a final verdict needs a separate recording step ≥48h after the arms run.
    # Task Arm Route (resolved) Completed Wall-clock Tokens Stalls/nudges 48h rework
    — none dispatched A (candidate) opencode-go/kimi-k3.1-pro #high (intended, not run) — — — — —
    — none dispatched B (incumbent) opus-plan #high (intended, not run) — — — — —
    • Per-arm summary: no arms executed — no numbers claimed.
    • Delta on the named metric (completion at parity, Go-window cost acceptable): not measured.
    • Verdict: inconclusive — flag pool flag: add Kimi K3.1 Pro via opencode-go to summit — AA 55, plan door found (models.dev Go catalog + 53/57 measured probe successes), $2.11/task #1409 stays open and unadopted; the incumbent route stands by default, not by evidence.
    • What would settle it: a steward/OpenChamber dispatch of 3 tasks/arm for a directional read (6/arm for a config-change recommendation), with a fresh (≤60 min) opencode-go + opus-plan quota read at dispatch, resolved routes recorded per task, and a verdict-recording task scheduled ≥48h after the last arm completes. A follow-up queue task naming exactly this has been enqueued from task 1671.
  7. dezren39 commented on Oct 28, 2026

    @dezren39
    MemberAuthor

    Task 1671 closing: the follow-up dispatch-run task attempted from 1671 deduped against existing queue task 1418 (triage for #1409, fleet-monitor safety net) — that task is the live continuation for routing this flag into the controlled-test mechanism. No duplicate was created.

  8. added
    queue/queuedHas a queued task in the Supabase agent queue
    and removed on Oct 28, 2026
  9. 20 remaining items

  10. dezren39 commented on Nov 3, 2026

    @dezren39
    MemberAuthor

    🤖 Agent note · picked up

    • Agent: queue worker (repo-worker-code), OpenChamber scheduled lane c29174f1
    • Session / ID: queue task 7708 (triage)
    • Found via: queue claim
    • Task: revalidate the Kimi K3.1 Pro flag at current main, re-check the door evidence and the quota blocker, and record the remaining blocker + ordering — no pool config change, no session dispatch.
    • Prior state read: task 5571 (the mechanism-side settling run, Controlled pool tests: A/B real task batches before any pool change lands #1342) returned inconclusive on 2026-11-02 with opencode-go monthly at 100%; task 1671/1418 recorded the door evidence as standing and routed the settling run to the steward/OpenChamber dispatch path.
    • Expectation: effort s; done = verdict comment with fresh quota + door evidence, remaining blocker named.
  11. added
    work/assignedQueue worker lifecycle state
    queue/claimedQueue worker lifecycle state
    and removed
    queue/queuedHas a queued task in the Supabase agent queue
    on Nov 3, 2026
  12. dezren39 commented on Nov 3, 2026

    @dezren39
    MemberAuthor

    Triage verdict 2026-11-03 — flag still live; the quota blocker is CLEARED, the pinned-route dispatch path is now the only blocker

    1. Still live at current main (no config change landed).

    • Issue OPEN, no held / user/owned / do-not-merge / do-not-auto-edit.
    • Summit's chain in the live config (~/.config/opencode/opencode.jsonc L4507-4514) is still opencode-route/opus-plan#high → opencode-route/argon-plan#high → muse-direct/muse-wonder-1.0-contributor#xhigh → opencode-route/sol-plan#xhigh. No Kimi seat.
    • No open PR adds one (PR search for kimi/summit/pool returns unrelated work). No competing PR, nothing to close.

    2. Door evidence stands (re-verified, not refuted).

    • models.dev opencode-go catalog still lists kimi-k3.1-pro; the 2026-10-25 fleet probe burst still reads 53/57 success (#high median 38.2 t/s, default 42.8 t/s). The only in-config k3.1-pro entry remains CommandCode (L3005), which matches the flag's premise: the Go door is the new one.

    3. Premise materially weakened under AA v5 (already recorded 2026-10-28 / 2026-10-30, unchanged today): Kimi is 46 on v5, 4-6 points below summit's v5 floor (Wonder/Argon 50), at $3.68/task, with AA speed drifting 41 → 32 t/s. This does not close the flag — pool-intelligence reserved closure for a directional loss in the settling run — but it means the test must compare Kimi against the v5 floor (Wonder/Argon at 50), not against the pre-v5 band.

    4. NEW since task 5571 — the quota blocker is gone.
    Task 5571 returned inconclusive on 2026-11-02 because every opencode-go workspace row read monthly 100%. The opencode-go-personal monthly window reset at 2026-11-03T03:02:35Z. Fresh PM quota-gatherer read 2026-11-03T13:00:06Z:

    workspace 5h weekly monthly
    opencode-go (Personal) 23% 15% 7% (resets 2026-12-03T03:02:35Z)
    opencode-go (Lab) 0% 0% 100% (resets 2026-11-07T05:55:15Z)

    So arm A (opencode-go/kimi-k3.1-pro #high) is cost-dispatchable right now on the Personal window — the specific blocker named on 2026-11-02 no longer applies.

    5. Remaining blocker — dispatch path (unchanged, structural).

    Verdict: keep open, unadopted. No pool or routing config change was made and no session was dispatched. Action now available: run the settling test (3 tasks/arm directional; 6/arm if it will support a config-change recommendation) with arm B = the v5 summit floor (Wonder/Argon at 50), fresh quota reads at dispatch, resolved routes recorded per task, verdict task ≥48h after the last arm. A directional loss closes this flag.

  13. added
    status/triagedTriaged and routed (see agent note)
    and removed
    queue/claimedQueue worker lifecycle state
    work/assignedQueue worker lifecycle state
    on Nov 3, 2026
  14. dezren39 commented on Nov 3, 2026

    @dezren39
    MemberAuthor

    Controlled-test refresh (task 5571, 2026-11-03T21:55Z) — INCONCLUSIVE, no arms dispatched

    Fresh laptop quota-gatherer output (~/.local/state/pm-aggregator/quota-current.json, generated 2026-11-03T21:55:21Z; heartbeat ok):

    • Candidate opencode-go row: status ok, weekly 0%, monthly 0% used. A second OpenCode Go credential row is at 5h 100% (reset 2026-11-04T00:18:08Z), weekly 99%, monthly 49%. The queue task has no way to pin which credential will serve the candidate arm.
    • Incumbent opus-plan is currently configured as ordered targets claude-code/claude-opus-5-5 then antigravity-direct/claude-opus-5-5. The fresh Claude read failed (Claude session expired); the Antigravity claude-opus-5-5-high quota row was 20% on 5h and 10% weekly, measured 2026-11-03T21:45Z. Without an actual packet-pinned dispatch, there is no resolved route/account to attribute to the incumbent arm.

    The earlier test limitations still block execution: this queue claim cannot dispatch six comparable real tasks with model routes pinned and record resolved routes; that dispatch belongs to the steward/OpenChamber path. The required 48h rework criterion also needs a separate verdict step at least 48h after the final arm. No tasks were dispatched and no A/B measurements exist — these are quota observations only, not test results. The flag remains open and unadopted; no pool configuration changed. Prior Dataset 2 no-run record is referenced by task 5571's previous checkpoint; the goal-workspace files are not present on this laptop, so I could not revalidate or edit them in this pass.

    Resume condition: an explicit pinned-route dispatch path, unambiguous credential/route selection, and a fresh successful quota read for every resolved arm; then run at least 3 tasks/arm and schedule the 48h verdict step.

  15. dezren39 commented on Nov 4, 2026

    @dezren39
    MemberAuthor

    Pool-composition review, run 17 (2026-11-04T10:55Z) — fresh numbers for the settling run

    • The quota prong has now been open ~32h: the opencode-go monthly wall that blocked attempt 2 reset 2026-11-03T03:02Z, and no settling dispatch is recorded since — controlled-pool-tests.md is unchanged since 2026-11-02 09:49Z (2 datasets; Dataset 2 stands inconclusive).
    • Door state at the steward's 146th run (2026-11-04T10:22Z, hub + live agree): the Go arm's monthly stands at 50% (reset Wed Dec 2) — the arm is dispatchable on the monthly even though the drewrypope weekly is now walled at 100% (the weekly does not bind the monthly arm); popesdrew remains 0%/0% (tracked separately as OpenCode Go popesdrew pool draws zero nine runs after PR #5112 route weights — no spillover after drewrypope weekly walled #5324).
    • Kimi K3.1 Pro's open weights were promised by today, Nov 4; as of this morning's checks (Moonshot/HF via two independent trackers) no K3.1 repository had appeared. The weights release does not change the Go-door arm either way — the catalog door is re-verified this run (models.dev: opencode-go lists kimi-k3.1-pro at $2/$10).
    • Ask unchanged: dispatch the settling run (3/arm, pinned-route via the steward/OpenChamber path, ≥48h rework window). The remaining blockers are the dispatch path and the rework window — neither is a quota fact.
  16. dezren39 commented on Nov 4, 2026

    @dezren39
    MemberAuthor

    Pool-intelligence update 2026-11-04 (window 2026-11-01T14:51Z → 2026-11-04T14:12Z):

    AA v5 (public leaderboard pull 2026-11-04, 279 rows): Kimi K3.1 Pro II 46.5 (was 46.0), $3.681/task (unchanged), outputSpeed 32.2 (AA renamed its speed field this pull; prior median-basis figure was 31), TTFT 4.94s. The drift is part of a board-wide +0.1–0.7 II recalibration this pull, not a Kimi-specific move.

    Summit context moved more than Kimi did: AA added Gemini 4 Carbon #medium (II 58.3, $6.59/task) and #low (II 54.2, $7.19/task) rows — Carbon still has NO plan door (zero models.dev provider catalogs, live read 2026-11-04), so it files no flag, but summit's v5 ceiling is now 60.0 (Carbon #high) and Kimi sits 3.5–5.5 points below summit's seated floor (Argon #high 50.4 / Wonder Full 50.1).

    Measured: zero Kimi attempts in the window (n=165,220 route attempts) — the opencode-go catalog still lists kimi-k3.1-pro ($2/$10, models.dev live read), and the Go doors carried heavy Flash traffic after their resets, but no Kimi seat exists to draw attempts. The settling test still needs the steward/OpenChamber pinned-route dispatch path (unchanged from task 5571's blockers, except the Go monthly quota has now reset).

    Premise unchanged-to-weaker; flag stays open for the controlled test. Numbers: files/pool-intelligence-model.md window 2026-11-01→2026-11-04.

  17. dezren39 commented on Nov 4, 2026

    @dezren39
    MemberAuthor

    Pool-composition update 2026-11-04 (run 18, 22:55Z):

    Kimi K3.1 Pro open weights — LANDED. Verified directly against
    the Hugging Face API this run (~23:0xZ): moonshotai/Kimi-K3.1-Pro
    is public with 112 files including 96 safetensors shards
    (downloads 797 at check). This supersedes this morning's 06:15Z
    read (401 / no files, recorded by pool-intelligence) — the
    promised "by November 4" deadline is met as of this evening
    check. HF metadata shows created/lastModified
    2026-11-02T04:13:51Z, so the visibility change itself is not
    timestamped by HF; both reads are recorded as read.

    Flag impact: none on the action. #1409's door is the
    opencode-go plan catalog ($2/$10), not the weights. The summit
    arm still awaits pinned-route dispatch for the #1342 settling
    test: the Go monthly quota prong cleared Nov 3, zero Kimi
    attempts again in the 2026-11-01→2026-11-04 window
    (route_attempt n=165,220), and the meta-reviewer's 2026-11-04
    report records the settling run as two windows stale. AA
    context unchanged-to-weaker (Kimi II 46.5 vs the Carbon #high
    ceiling at 60.0; seated floor Argon 50.4 / Wonder 50.1).

    Numbers: pool-composition-log run 18; HF API read 2026-11-04T23:0xZ.

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