pr-shepherd: PR #1473 conflicts with main — its due-probe pool recovery fix for issue #1390 is stranded #1757

Finding (filed by the pr-diff-review job, 2026-11-05 09:24 CST run)

Open PR #1473 — "fix(core): let due bench probes recover quota-exhausted pools" — is the only implementation of issue #1390, and it is stranded: CONFLICTING/DIRTY against current main and untouched since 2026-11-03, while #1390 stays open and the defect stays live on main.

Evidence

• PR fix(core): let due bench probes recover quota-exhausted pools #1473: OPEN, created 2026-11-03T00:48:21Z, last updated 2026-11-03T00:50:26Z, head aee912ad6. Merge state verified twice this run: gh pr view reports mergeable=CONFLICTING / mergeStateStatus=DIRTY; the REST pulls endpoint agrees.
• Issue fix(core): pool quota exclusion defeats due bench probes — probe-eligible leaves stay excluded until the escalated cooldown expires (PR #1384 Codex P2 unaddressed) #1390: OPEN — "pool quota exclusion defeats due bench probes — probe-eligible leaves stay excluded until the escalated cooldown expires".
• Current main 8185486080ab686d3a160f16deb5357f1199fda3 does NOT contain the fix:
  • packages/core/src/model-resolver.ts: the pool-exclusion branches (lines ~809–824) still read else if (isPoolExhausted) and !isPoolExhausted with no due-probe carve-out (poolProbe does not exist on main).
  • packages/core/src/model-route.ts: poolQuotaExhausted (line ~741) counts a leaf's quota evidence via quotaEvidence(...) with no probeDue carve-out, so a due half-open probe still counts toward the pool threshold that excludes it.
• Conflict warning for whoever rebases: PR fix(core): let due bench probes recover quota-exhausted pools #1473's diff also deletes retainedQuotaWindowMs as "dead code" (the TS6133 cleanup). On current main that helper no longer exists in that form — the fix(core): demoted() ignores the judging Location's settings demotion — two #1423 model-route tests fail on main #1484 retention fix (issue fix(core): demoted() ignores the judging Location's settings demotion — two #1423 model-route tests fail on main #1484, CLOSED) landed refactored: retainedDemotionWindow() now unions both config layers (demotion readers + settings readers). A rebase must drop/redo that hunk against main's current shape, not resurrect the old deletion or re-break fix(core): demoted() ignores the judging Location's settings demotion — two #1423 model-route tests fail on main #1484's retention union.

Why it matters

The due bench probe is the pool's half-open recovery path. While the pool verdict counts the due probe itself as exhaustion evidence, a quota-exhausted pool cannot recover until the escalated cooldown expires — exactly the failure #1390 records (a PR #1384 Codex P2 that was never addressed). The finished, test-carrying fix exists only in this conflicting PR, and every day main moves, the rebase gets harder.

Acceptance criteria

• PR fix(core): let due bench probes recover quota-exhausted pools #1473 is rebased onto current main and mergeable (not CONFLICTING/DIRTY), or closed as superseded by a fresh PR carrying the same change.
• On the resulting branch: poolQuotaExhausted does not count a leaf whose bench probe is due (claimed / not-yet-due benches still count), and the resolver's ready + last-resort pool exclusion admits a leaf whose own probe is due — matching PR fix(core): let due bench probes recover quota-exhausted pools #1473's original change.
• The PR's regression tests pass on the final head: the model-route pool test ("due bench probes do not pull their pool; claimed and not-yet-due benches still do") and the model-resolver recovery test ("lets a due half-open probe recover a quota-exhausted pool").
• Main's current fix(core): demoted() ignores the judging Location's settings demotion — two #1423 model-route tests fail on main #1484 shape is preserved: demotionPolicy still falls back to activeSettings(location).quota and retainedDemotionWindow() still unions both config layers.
• Issue fix(core): pool quota exclusion defeats due bench probes — probe-eligible leaves stay excluded until the escalated cooldown expires (PR #1384 Codex P2 unaddressed) #1390 is closed by the landing PR; this issue closes when PR fix(core): let due bench probes recover quota-exhausted pools #1473 (or its superseding PR) lands.